DVN Tokyo Light Source Panel Talk

At the DVN Tokyo workshop, Ralf Schäfer, chairman of the Panel session 2, gathered around him great experts from light source suppliers, Tier 1 suppliers and car makers. The Panelists were Thomas Reiners ( Osram ), John Peek ( Philips ) from Light Source suppliers, Masaya Ookodo (Ichikoh ), Masaru Sasaki (Koito ) , Ernst-Olaf Rosenhahn ( AL ) from Tier 1, and Ryou Chijimatsu ( Honda ) , Hitoshi Nakagaki ( Nissan ) , Wolfgang Huhn ( Audi ) from Car makers

Ralf Schäfer started with 2 questions to the light source suppliers asking
– How will LEDs develop as light source technology compared to incandescent, halogen, HID sources and
– What may become competitive features of next generation technologies like OLEDs and Lasers versus LEDs from light source perspective ?
John Peek, from Philips answers:
” LED penetration worldwide will greatly increase to around 20% between 2020 and 2025.
Growth expectations for Xenon 25w in the window 5 to 8 years; after that its market share will drop steadily.
Halogen will see its market share dropping slowly, but volume-wise will be more or less constant for another 10 years.
OLED for rear lighting is developing, but not expected in the market before 2015.
Laser light still has technological limitations, but may find some specific applications after 2016-2017”.
Thomas Reiners , from Osram answers:
” LEDs will definitely grow but with a stable halogen market in basic version and LED in Premium.
For detailed market projection we need to better understand the impact of future electronic architecture and package volume of Halogen vs LEDs.
OLED has a huge styling benefit but for automotive still needs to catch-up in 3D shape, temperature and cost position.
Laser technology will be driven by the video projection market but may create automotive spin-offs; high luminance can be a huge benefit for small optics. However, diverse market requirements will definitely allow co-existence of HID, LED and Laser sources.”