Bullough (left) and Flannagan at the 2013 US DVN Workshop
John Bullough : Halogen should go down in terms of take rate to around 50% for new vehicles in the next 10 years in North America, but a substantial amount should remain due to simplicity and low cost.
Michael Flannagan : My estimate is around 40% of headlamps will still be halogen in 2023 because LED will grow very quickly, especially with ADB types of functionality which have great potential.
- On HID light sources
J.B.: There is still some negative image for HID in the USA. HID probably will not grow much over where it is today, and probably will start decreasing to nearly zero by 2020. 25W doesn ' t really seem to be an interesting option in the USA as leveling and cleaning systems are not mandatory.
M.F.: In ten years, the new-car take rate for HID will probably be 0%