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EVs Will Be 35% of Europe's Market by 2035 PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 22 April 2019

Last week I attended an interesting conference about the forecast for evolution of the automotive markets in Europe and the world. Two speakers from PSA and Renault presented an annual update of their study started 10 years ago; the main conclusion was that conditions in Europe favour an ongoing EV push, with EV market share predicted to reach 35% and vehicle sales in China are predicted to reach around 33 million units by 2035, while diesel power's market share, once seemingly indomitable in Europe, is expected to sink by 30 points as soon as 2025. This week you'll find our description and analysis of those forecasts and more.

Incidentally, this what you're reading is the first DVN editorial not primarily focused on lighting or ADAS topics. I really think presentations like this, forecasting the future of the automotive market, deserve to be detailed here; they have direct relevance for us in the DVN community—the information they present show that we have to work on driving down the energy consumption, mass, and volume of our headlamps and other devices and systems.

The DVN Shanghai Workshop starts tomorrow, and I am happy to announce that a record 27 companies—including all six of the world's greatest set makers—are sponsoring the event and displaying their latest innovations, and we will have 27 lectures about the latest technologies. More, there'll be another of our very popular regulation sessions featuring top worldwide experts like GTB President Geoff Draper, Audi's Wolfgang Huhn, Varroc's Rainer Neuman, Bu Weili from SMVIC, He Yuntang and Zhau Zhun from CATARC. Watch for coverage here in the Driving Vision News.

Sincerely yours

DVN President

 

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Forecasts: Auto Market Evolution in Europe and the World PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 22 April 2019

At an event organized by the SIA (the French Society of Automotive Engineers), Catherine Girard from Renault and Paul-Antoine Chafangeon from PSA gave a talk on Evolution of Automobile Markets in Europe and Around the World. This study started 10 years ago, and features an annual update.

The following four scenarios were analysed along two axes, using a consumer-demand model: GDP growth and environmental constraints:
Green constraints: low fuel price with tax incentives to faster alternative green technologies
Green growth: high fuel price with strong tax incentives to faster alternative green technologies
Stagnation: low fuel price with soft vehicle taxation
Liberal world: High petrol price with moderate tax increase


Evolution of battery cost in four analysed scenarios

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